狐为民;
HU Wei-min(Department of Computer,Science North China Institute of Science and Technology,Yanjiao 101601,Beijing-east,China)

• 1:华北科技学院计算机系

摘要(Abstract)：

应用微积分基本原理,对一般非线性函数进行了因子分解,得出了自变量对非线性函数值的"贡献大小"的判别方法,提出了针对一般非线性函数的"广义统计预测模型"。对黑代沟露天煤矿爆堆形态的预测表明其预测绝对准确度达到95%以上,与同期使用神经网络预测结果进行的对比分析表明,"广义统计预测模型"准确度远远高于神经网络预测模型。
A factor decomposition was carried out on general nonlinear function by applying calculus fundamental principle,discriminance method of "constribution size" was obtained about independent variables to the nonlinear function value,and "generalized statistics prediction model" was put forward about general nonlinear function.The blasting pile morphology prediction in Heidaigou Open-pit Coal Mine shows the absolute accuracy of the prediction is above 95%.The comparative analysis with the use of neural network to predict the results in the same period shows that the accuracy of the"generalized statistical prediction model" is far above the accuracy of neural network prediction model.

关键词(KeyWords)： 非线性函数;预测模型;统计学;神经网络
Nonlinear function;Prediction model;Statistics;Neural network

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家“863”课题(2007aa06Z131)

作者(Authors): 狐为民;
HU Wei-min(Department of Computer,Science North China Institute of Science and Technology,Yanjiao 101601,Beijing-east,China)

参考文献(References)：

• [1]李克民,张幼蒂,傅洪贤.露天煤矿抛掷爆破参数分析[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2006(4):423-426.
• [2]窦林名,谷德钟.冲击矿压及其防治[J].矿山压力与顶板管理,1999,16(3/4):215-218.
• [3]张幼蒂,傅洪贤,王启瑞,等.抛掷爆破与剥离台阶开采参数分析[J].中国矿业大学学报,2003,32(1):27-30.
• [4]Udwiczak J T.Blast Casting,Don’t Let It Carryyou A-way[J].J Expl Eng,1985,3(1):20-22.
• [5]傅洪贤,李克民.露天煤矿高台阶抛掷爆破参数分析[J].煤炭学报,2006,31(4):442-445.
• [6]马建军,李青丰,张树礼.灰色关联分析在黑岱沟露天煤矿土壤质量评价中的应用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(7):125-129.
• [7]张幼蒂,李克民,尚涛,等.露天矿倒堆剥离工艺的发展及其应用前景——露天矿倒堆剥离开采方法系列论文之一[J].中国矿业大学学报,2002,31(4):331-334.